Should transport be free?

The $17.8m South Los Angeles UBM Pilot Program will provide a smörgåsbord of transportation options to 2000 lower-income Angelenos and measure the socioeconomic impact. Meanwhile in Pittsburgh, a comparatively modest $250,000 trial will provide 50 residents with access to Move PGH services including public transit, POGOH bike-share, Zipcar car-share and Spin scooters.

We recruit low-income residents and randomly sort them into two groups of 50. Our treatment group receive additional transportation resources, whereas our control group don’t. Crucially, we obtain their permission to collect their data, which we de-identify prior to analysis.

It is a dispositive test: one designed to demonstrate that UBM works by comparing outcomes between ex-ante identical groups with and without free mobility. While a sample of 50 may be insufficient to prove the theory conclusively, the results may justify funding for tests on a wider scale.

‘But we must remain open to the possibility it won’t matter much,’ he adds. ‘People face so many barriers. One plausible conclusion could be that transportation is a necessary condition for social advancement, but in itself insufficient unless paired with other social supports.’ But at LADOT, UBM is no dispassionate hypothesis.

For us, universal basic mobility is an operating principle,’ says Llanos. ‘It’s a way we measure every grant, project and initiative. How does it help close the gap and better connect all Angelenos to opportunity? This pilot is a concentrated illustration of that concept.

While initially focused on a 2000-resident cohort, it will simultaneously test the theory and lay groundwork for implementation at scale. LADOT will install safe street and EV charging infrastructure, build public-private partnerships and foster digital access to transportation – all prerequisites to wider provision - and contribute $1m in pilot funds to the Rail-to-Rail Active Transportation Corridor Project.

 ‘The smartphone makes all this possible,’ says Branstetter.

With a smartphone, we can communicate with residents and provide resources with smartphone-enabled payments. With a smartphone, they can access transportation options and – with their permission - we can track their mobility. Technology in almost everyone’s hands gives us incredible reach

Equally crucial is community engagement. In Pittsburgh, the Manchester Citizens Corporation will help identify the correct target population, onboard participants and educate them in using mobility options. LADOT has partnered with the SLATE-Z community organization and created a Residents Advisory Committee to articulate citizens’ own investment priorities.

‘We’re not prescribing options this community should have,’ says Llanos. ‘Since we first submitted the application, we have co-designed the pilot with local residents. It makes a tangible difference, because transportation policy has neglected these neighborhoods over time and we have to rebuild those relationships.’

Both pilots must quantify the relative socioeconomic progress of participants to understand the impact of UBM provision. University of California, Davis (UC Davis) will assist LADOT and CMU is responsible for progress-tracking Pittsburgh’s treatment and control groups.

‘Participants agree to download a smartphone app which tracks their movements,’ says Branstetter. ‘We can measure the movements of our treatment group relative to our control group. Do they go to new places? Or just commute to the same places more reliably? We de-identify that data to safeguard privacy.’

Partnership with Allegheny County Department of Human Service (DHS) enables CMU to interrogate rich public datasets. Each year, the US unemployment insurance system requires all companies to report the identities and incomes of employees – data which Allegheny DHS can use to track the employment status and income of individuals in the pilot.

‘My research team does not have access to individual records,’ Branstetter notes. ‘Instead, we have a relationship whereby we present this agency with questions about two randomly-assigned groups. We can directly see what difference transportation resources make to income and do more sophisticated analyses.’

The possibilities are not limited to employment. Allegheny DHS can describe individuals’ interactions with the US justice system. School records enable it to detect spillover effects on the academic progress of children with parents involved in the study. It can monitor reliance on publicly-funded health insurance, income support and nutritional assistance.

 ‘Medicaid records allow granular analysis of health outcomes (with the same iron wall around privacy). It may show that short-term transportation expenditure makes for a healthier society and reduces long-term health expenditure.’

The continuity of administrative records allows the persistence of study benefits to be measured into the indefinite future. Potentially, this approach is easily repeatable across or beyond the US. Branstetter believes UK researchers could access equally rich datasets by partnering with the Office of National Statistics, while statistics are even more centralized elsewhere in Europe.

Both pilots target net-positive carbon impacts. In South LA, which suffers high concentrations of air pollution and respiratory disorders, LADOT will promote clean mobility through street safety and EV infrastructure. The package offered in Pittsburgh reflects a sustainable modal mix, with Zipcar use rationed to a few hours per month. 

‘Transportation accounts for 30% of average American household expenditure,’ says Rowe. ‘For low-income suburban residents forced to maintain an old clunker of a car, it becomes far more. By providing options to use other modes, perhaps we can bring them along on the sustainable mobility movement already underway in walkable neighborhoods.’

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