The Trump shift - Prospects for the smart mobility sector under a new Administration in the White House

Less than two weeks into Donald Trump’s second term in office as President of the USA, the talk has already turned to what the future might hold for the smart mobility sector. Although no direct mention has been made of the term “smart mobility” in any of the 78 year old billionaire’s recent slew of funding announcements, industry figures have begun speculating as to what may be in store in terms of funding, policy initiatives, project cancellations and, particularly, on his virtual dismissal of the notion of an EV infrastructure and a seeming return to a reliance on gas- and oil-powered vehicles.

To gain an idea of how President Trump’s attitude towards the sector might be perceived, Intertraffic spoke with three smart mobility practitioners and experts and asked a simple question: what are the prospects for the sector over the next four years? 

“Firstly,” says vastly experienced intelligent transport consultant Bob McQueen, “if the Smart Mobility sector really is smart, it will be a good thing, because he's going to be all about efficiency and private sector involvement. Secondly, on the negative side, he has paused all the IIJA (Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act) funding, which threatens the potential source for a lot of this stuff. We really need to wait and see when new Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy gets his feet under the table what exactly is going to happen. But I think if you're smart, you shouldn't be worried. 

“I also think that Smart Mobility has a big play in government efficiency. And as you know, Trump is big on government efficiency and given Elon Musk’s apparent role of trying to apply business efficiency techniques to government, I think smart mobility plays a part in that,” McQueen adds. “The efficiency drive should lead to more support for road user charging schemes.”

That’s an interesting point – on the brink of rolling out a nationwide road user charging pilot, the US DoT is clearly going to be focused on results and outcomes, something where previous RUC projects and pilots have fallen short, it could be said.

“Trump is big on government efficiency and given Elon Musk’s apparent role of trying to apply business efficiency techniques to government, I think smart mobility plays a part in that.”

“I expect a big focus on results, safety, efficiency, user experience. I think equity might be out the window, and I think the whole environmental sustainability thing will be questioned to see if it delivers results. As long as you can point to outcomes, results based on your solutions, I think you're going to be OK.”

ENCOURAGEMENT FOR STARTUPS

“I think Trump will be quite good for the economy,” says Terry Yoell, co-founder and CEO of Edinburgh-based AI-driven EV platform Flock Mobility. “Which, indirectly, will be good for Smart Mobility startups. Because, as my most recent funding round would suggest, the money's coming out of the US at the moment, and not the UK. We’ve not had much encouragement from the new Labour Government in the UK so a lot of startups have started looking elsewhere and the US is a good place, especially right now, because everyone's so upbeat. From an investment perspective the future prospects are positive, specifically within smart mobility.”

President Trump has, however, already cancelled a number of EV infrastructure projects, signalling an inevitable return to the practice of drilling for oil, something that the US very publicly had been seen to move away from in recent years.

What does the future have in store for electric vehicles, and electric vehicle fleet platforms, under the new Trump Administration? (Credit: Flock Mobility)

“From that perspective, if you're an EV fleet platform like ourselves, I wouldn't say that's necessarily a positive note,” says Yoell. “Having said that, I think there's already this kind of momentum in the US, they definitely don't want to be the country that misses out on the opportunity from a sustainability perspective. It's all relative to the likes of China as well,” he adds.  “I can't get over the fact that everyone's surprised in Europe that Germany is having a downturn at the moment, when you look at the fact that everyone's just been ignoring China for the past 10 years and what they have been building, so I think the US should be careful as well, but that's a whole different conversation.

“If the US insists on retaining diesel- or petrol-swigging vehicles, and they continue to build those vehicles because they love that old American muscle, in five years time we're going to be in an even worse position because China will be that much further down the EV road, because they've made those decisions already, and they've gone with it.”

“If the US insists on retaining diesel- or petrol-swigging vehicles, in five years time we're going to be in an even worse position because China will be that much further down the EV road.”

“I just think from China's perspective, we’re not questioning whether autonomous is going to happen. It is happening. Look at multiple cities in China. At the moment, they've already rolled out autonomous taxis. Go and look at EV infrastructure and the EV side of things, they are absolutely caning it. Go and look at the sustainability side of things, where they're changing their whole makeup of energy in terms of production. So look at what China is doing with wind and solar power, and it's phenomenal the rate at which they are progressing. And here we have the Trump Administration that's said: ‘Let's go and drill oil again’.”

Yoell concludes: “A lot of the policies that will get rolled out are really good ideas but there were so many opportunities to start rolling out smart mobility technologies with subsidy from the US government… and I think Trump is just going to roll back on a lot of that.” 

SMART MOBILITY AS A SERVICE

For Sampo Hietanen, the founder of MaaS Global and now the driving force behind Aspectu, his focus is on how the US will approach the concept of Mobility as a Service.

“Trump is a petrol-head so there’ll be more fracking which means more petrol, more roads, more asphalt. Now, having said that, you know, business and development doesn't evolve around Trump himself. With the rapid development of AI, there will be lots of things happening which means that mobility becomes automated, and more powered by AI.

“With the rapid development of AI, there will be lots of things happening which means that mobility becomes automated, and more powered by AI.”

Despite cancelling some key initiatives, the smart mobility sector is quite positive about the effect that the new US presidency will have on some smart mobility and connected vehicle markets. (Credit: BiancoBlue/Dreamstime.com)

“So what I would expect is big openings in the US, for creating giga- and mega-companies that jump into the mobility sector on an AI platforms, as we see from Waymo and companies like that. I would say that what the European we still good at it is systems. We still have good innovations, but our resources are scattered democratically everywhere in Europe. What we are lacking and how we should compete in this is, one way or another, trying to find the uniquely European approach, and instead of playing 11 men behind the ball, trying to do a bit of offense as well. This is what the US is doing in that regard.”

Hietanen is also keeping a close eye on how the US’s approach to smart mobility under its 47 presidential term affects the rest of the world.

“It's also how the whole mobility scene will change, because the look and feel of US cities is different, and now they're creating solutions that will be very car centric, whereas the European approach is much more multi-modal, more public transport focused,” he surmises. “Now, all the innovation development goes where the innovation money goes. If Europe wants to do this… I am looking forward to seeing the ‘offense’. We might have to form some sort of mega-company for mobility, or at least a few of the major players together, because at the same time, the European car industry will not get its head around mobility.” 

These are just the personal opinions of three smart mobility practitioners, and it remains to be seen just what effect Donald Trump’s second term as President of the USA has on the global industry. It’s safe to say that this won’t be the last article we publish on the subject.